Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 98¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 57%
$6.6K
-$18.1
92¢ → 98.2¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SB sbimbg | Underavg 90¢ | $4.5K | $4.5K | -$0 | 64% 2186-1209 (3395) |
 RN1 | Underavg 97.1¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$55.36 | 55% 43612-35879 (79491) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 94¢ | $174.37 | $166.95 | -$7.42 | 68% 31211-14997 (46208) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 2.5¢ | $13 | $52 | +$39 | 52% 16312-14865 (31177) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 90¢ | $37.8 | $37.8 | +$0 | 54% 13824-11602 (25426) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 2.9¢ | $2.32 | $8 | +$5.68 | 50% 7770-7819 (15589) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 10¢ | $5.48 | $5.48 | -$0 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
Invested
$4,500
Value
$4.5K
PnL
-$0
Record
64%
2186-1209 (3395)
RN1Invested
$1,838.09
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$55.36
Record
55%
43612-35879 (79491)
Invested
$174.37
Value
$166.95
PnL
-$7.42
Record
68%
31211-14997 (46208)
Invested
$13
Value
$52
PnL
+$39
Record
52%
16312-14865 (31177)
Invested
$37.8
Value
$37.8
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
13824-11602 (25426)
Invested
$2.32
Value
$8
PnL
+$5.68
Record
50%
7770-7819 (15589)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$5.48
Value
$5.48
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
1506-1114 (2620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.