Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 94¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25

Over7¢Under93¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 78%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

-$48.7

Smart Money Entry

81.5¢ → 93.5¢

+15% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over7%

Under94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares7,631

Combined PnL-$263.84

Over2 traders

Total Value$330.73

Total Shares1,503

Combined PnL+$215.14

Under — 78%Over — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Reformedx	Underavg 78¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	-$0	52% 713-649 (1362)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 90¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$180	51% 985-937 (1922)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 86.7¢	$840.79	$756.52	-$84.27	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 8¢	$81.6	$223.91	+$142.31	52% 16312-14865 (31177)
0X 0xd14650532E11324cdaca20f45666486c24679Bf0-1758702953678CTR	Overavg 7¢	$33.99	$106.82	+$72.83	35% 382-715 (1097)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 76.4¢	$71.27	$72.85	+$1.58	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 82¢	$36.08	$34.32	-$1.76	57% 1506-1114 (2620)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 75¢	$17.7	$18.41	+$0.71	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 80¢	$4	$3.9	-$0.1	50% 8825-8766 (17591)

Reformedx

Under

Invested

$3,899.99

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

713-649 (1362)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$1,350

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$180

Record

51%

985-937 (1922)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$840.79

Value

$756.52

PnL

-$84.27

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$81.6

Value

$223.91

PnL

+$142.31

Record

52%

16312-14865 (31177)

0xd14650532E11324cdaca20f45666486c24679Bf0-1758702953678CTR

Over

Invested

$33.99

Value

$106.82

PnL

+$72.83

Record

35%

382-715 (1097)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$71.27

Value

$72.85

PnL

+$1.58

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$36.08

Value

$34.32

PnL

-$1.76

Record

57%

1506-1114 (2620)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$17.7

Value

$18.41

PnL

+$0.71

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

8825-8766 (17591)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.