Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Under (53%) · Under at 81¢ · $19K held · ended Oct 25

Over20¢Under80¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.5K

Combined PnL

-$511.87

Smart Money Entry

58.2¢ → 80.5¢

+38% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 17 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over20%

Under81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$16.1K

Total Shares28,316

Combined PnL-$659.76

Over8 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares5,161

Combined PnL+$147.89

Under — 53%Over — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SB sbimbg	Underavg 58.9¢	$10.3K	$9.8K	-$499.96	64% 2186-1209 (3395)
AgricultureSecretary	Underavg 55¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$30	83% 3612-744 (4356)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 59.4¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$77.5	51% 985-937 (1922)
CA CannaeCTR	Overavg 44.5¢	$932.64	$922.58	-$10.33	53% 13585-12026 (25611)
0X 0xd14650532E11324cdaca20f45666486c24679Bf0-1758702953678CTR	Overavg 37¢	$740	$880	+$140	35% 382-715 (1097)
MO mooseborzoii	Underavg 54¢	$803.59	$833.35	+$29.76	50% 1014-1005 (2019)
RN1	Underavg 57¢	$818.26	$803.99	-$14.27	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 56.5¢	$2.3K	$776.95	-$48.84	58% 31731-22975 (54706)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 63.4¢	$448.04	$395.45	-$52.59	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
HRTradingCTR	Overavg 43¢	$383.13	$392.04	+$8.91	57% 1506-1114 (2620)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Underavg 56.1¢	$132.64	$142.71	+$10.07	65% 12556-6677 (19233)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.1¢	$87.32	$87.23	-$0.1
└ Over leg	Overavg 35.9¢	$45.31	$55.48	+$10.17
FO foooool	Underavg 66.5¢	$122.38	$102.98	-$19.4	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 60.8¢	$88.57	$81.62	-$6.96	50% 8825-8766 (17591)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$57.48	$58.6	-$0.56	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$33.01	$40.35	+$7.34	56% 2033-1584 (3617)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$3.33	$5.87	+$2.53	50% 7770-7819 (15589)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$5.28	$5.28	+$0	61% 4553-2878 (7431)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$4.75	$4.75	-$0	53% 1872-1637 (3509)

sbimbg

Under

Invested

$10,282.51

Value

$9.8K

PnL

-$499.96

Record

64%

2186-1209 (3395)

AgricultureSecretary

Under

Invested

$1,650

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$30

Record

83%

3612-744 (4356)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$1,705

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$77.5

Record

51%

985-937 (1922)

CannaeCTR

Over

Invested

$932.64

Value

$922.58

PnL

-$10.33

Record

53%

13585-12026 (25611)

0xd14650532E11324cdaca20f45666486c24679Bf0-1758702953678CTR

Over

Invested

$740

Value

$880

PnL

+$140

Record

35%

382-715 (1097)

mooseborzoii

Under

Invested

$803.59

Value

$833.35

PnL

+$29.76

Record

50%

1014-1005 (2019)

RN1

Under

Invested

$818.26

Value

$803.99

PnL

-$14.27

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$2,290.29

Value

$776.95

PnL

-$48.84

Record

58%

31731-22975 (54706)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$448.04

Value

$395.45

PnL

-$52.59

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

HRTradingCTR

Over

Invested

$383.13

Value

$392.04

PnL

+$8.91

Record

57%

1506-1114 (2620)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Under

Invested

$132.64

Value

$142.71

PnL

+$10.07

Record

65%

12556-6677 (19233)

Both legs:

Under$87.3256.1¢-$0.1

Over$45.3135.9¢+$10.17

foooool

Under

Invested

$122.38

Value

$102.98

PnL

-$19.4

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$88.57

Value

$81.62

PnL

-$6.96

Record

50%

8825-8766 (17591)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$57.48

Value

$58.6

PnL

-$0.56

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.01

Value

$40.35

PnL

+$7.34

Record

56%

2033-1584 (3617)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.33

Value

$5.87

PnL

+$2.53

Record

50%

7770-7819 (15589)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.28

Value

$5.28

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

4553-2878 (7431)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.75

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

1872-1637 (3509)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 17 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.