Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (92%) · Under at 96¢ · $22K held · ended Oct 25

Over5¢Under95¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 92%

Total Value

$22.1K

Combined PnL

$2.6K

Smart Money Entry

67.8¢ → 95.5¢

+41% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under12 traders

Total Value$21.1K

Total Shares24,560

Combined PnL+$2.9K

Over1 trader

Total Value$998.36

Total Shares2,219

Combined PnL-$377.16

Under — 92%Over — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 71.8¢	$8.2K	$10.0K	+$1.8K	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
RN1	Underavg 59.9¢	$4.4K	$5.5K	+$1.1K	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
0X 0x4c07bf46017Ef52C0bEA3FE4253185DeC1316200-1769689308184	Underavg 71.8¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$338.27	54% 120-102 (222)
LA LaarsY	Underavg 62¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$140	50% 2990-3022 (6012)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 62.3¢	$854.19	$1.0K	+$146.6	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
WI Wintermute-SportCTR	Overavg 62¢	$1.4K	$998.36	-$377.16	60% 68-45 (113)
IL Illiasca	Underavg 94.6¢	$1,000	$977.74	-$22.26	64% 224-126 (350)
FO foooool	Underavg 47.9¢	$410.09	$615.55	+$205.46	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 53.9¢	$311.56	$511.14	+$199.58	50% 8893-8828 (17721)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 85¢	$150.35	$145.93	-$4.42	59% 13975-9717 (23692)
CA Cannae<$100	Underavg 28.2¢	$22.51	$39.28	+$16.77	53% 13609-12050 (25659)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 29.3¢	$19.55	$36.75	+$17.2	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 64¢	$9.92	$8.53	-$1.39	57% 1578-1171 (2749)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$8,238.06

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

RN1

Under

Invested

$4,411.31

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

0x4c07bf46017Ef52C0bEA3FE4253185DeC1316200-1769689308184

Under

Invested

$1,446.46

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$338.27

Record

54%

120-102 (222)

LaarsY

Under

Invested

$1,240

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$140

Record

50%

2990-3022 (6012)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$854.19

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$146.6

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

Wintermute-SportCTR

Over

Invested

$1,375.52

Value

$998.36

PnL

-$377.16

Record

60%

68-45 (113)

Illiasca

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$977.74

PnL

-$22.26

Record

64%

224-126 (350)

foooool

Under

Invested

$410.09

Value

$615.55

PnL

+$205.46

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$311.56

Value

$511.14

PnL

+$199.58

Record

50%

8893-8828 (17721)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$150.35

Value

$145.93

PnL

-$4.42

Record

59%

13975-9717 (23692)

Cannae<$100

Under

Invested

$22.51

Value

$39.28

PnL

+$16.77

Record

53%

13609-12050 (25659)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$19.55

Value

$36.75

PnL

+$17.2

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$9.92

Value

$8.53

PnL

-$1.39

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.