Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 0.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (30%) · Under at 72¢ · $38K held · ended Oct 25

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 30%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$38.5K

Combined PnL

$10.6K

Smart Money Entry

21.1¢ → 71.5¢

+239% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 72%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$20.3K

Total Shares49,273

Combined PnL+$9.9K

Over7 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares14,818

Combined PnL+$713.45

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 43.7¢	$6.8K	$10.5K	+$3.7K	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72	Underavg 10¢	$33.4K	$9.5K	+$6.2K	72% 1847-728 (2575)
0X 0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065CTR	Overavg 64¢	$6.7K	$8.3K	+$1.6K	60% 182-119 (301)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 66.8¢	$7.1K	$7.1K	-$16.93	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
└ Under leg	Underavg 40.7¢	$3.1K	$5.4K	+$2.3K
└ Over leg	Overavg 66.8¢	$4.1K	$1.7K	$-2.3K
DA dartanyan150CTR	Overavg 60¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$10	69% 206-94 (300)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 85.1¢	$679.36	$697.05	+$17.68	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
└ Under leg	Underavg 28.9¢	$235.93	$485.91	+$249.98
└ Over leg	Overavg 85.1¢	$443.44	$211.14	-$232.3
HRTradingCTR	Overavg 89.9¢	$1.3K	$464.21	-$861.31	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
AD adururu	Underavg 70.7¢	$295.8	$295.11	-$0.68	54% 295-248 (543)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR	Overavg 67.2¢	$194.88	$228.93	+$34.05	53% 1882-1643 (3525)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 30.4¢	$133.25	$129.11	-$4.14	56% 2044-1603 (3647)
SA Saber-greedCTR<$100	Overavg 90¢	$93.66	$83.26	-$10.41	59% 2279-1583 (3862)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 90¢	$54	$48	-$6	54% 13884-11640 (25524)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$6,764.62

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$3.7K

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72

Under

Invested

$33,363.98

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$6.2K

Record

72%

1847-728 (2575)

0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065CTR

Over

Invested

$6,704

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

60%

182-119 (301)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$7,124.13

Value

$7.1K

PnL

-$16.93

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

Both legs:

Under$3,055.9340.7¢+$2.3K

Over$4,068.266.8¢$-2.3K

dartanyan150CTR

Over

Invested

$1,200

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$10

Record

69%

206-94 (300)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$679.36

Value

$697.05

PnL

+$17.68

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

Both legs:

Under$235.9328.9¢+$249.98

Over$443.4485.1¢-$232.3

HRTradingCTR

Over

Invested

$1,325.51

Value

$464.21

PnL

-$861.31

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

adururu

Under

Invested

$295.8

Value

$295.11

PnL

-$0.68

Record

54%

295-248 (543)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR

Over

Invested

$194.88

Value

$228.93

PnL

+$34.05

Record

53%

1882-1643 (3525)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$133.25

Value

$129.11

PnL

-$4.14

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

Saber-greedCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$93.66

Value

$83.26

PnL

-$10.41

Record

59%

2279-1583 (3862)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54

Value

$48

PnL

-$6

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 72%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.