Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-10-25?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 67¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 25

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

-$3.45

Smart Money Entry

67¢ → 66.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares12,407

Combined PnL-$3.45

Yes1 trader

Total Value$30.21

Total Shares94

Combined PnL+$0

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 67.1¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$1.27	58% 31395-22700 (54095)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 67¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$0	69% 4216-1907 (6123)
CA Cannae	Noavg 67¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$0	53% 13553-11995 (25548)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 67¢	$135.34	$135.34	-$0	50% 7629-7782 (15411)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 69¢	$61.67	$59.9	-$1.77	53% 1866-1631 (3497)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 67¢	$54.99	$54.58	-$0.41	59% 13747-9558 (23305)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 67¢	$37.52	$37.52	-$0	54% 13697-11517 (25214)
JI jiafanCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$30.21	$30.21	+$0	61% 1297-825 (2122)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 67¢	$26.13	$26.13	-$0	68% 30779-14814 (45593)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$3,547.16

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$1.27

Record

58%

31395-22700 (54095)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$2,680

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$0

Record

69%

4216-1907 (6123)

Cannae

Invested

$1,958.7

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

13553-11995 (25548)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$135.34

Value

$135.34

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

7629-7782 (15411)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$61.67

Value

$59.9

PnL

-$1.77

Record

53%

1866-1631 (3497)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$54.99

Value

$54.58

PnL

-$0.41

Record

59%

13747-9558 (23305)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$37.52

Value

$37.52

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

13697-11517 (25214)

jiafanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.21

Value

$30.21

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

1297-825 (2122)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$26.13

Value

$26.13

PnL

-$0

Record

68%

30779-14814 (45593)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.