Spread: Sunderland AFC (-1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Leeds United FC (60%) · Leeds United FC at 97¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Leeds United FC
5
Leeds United FC 60%
$5.0K
$10.65
87.8¢ → 97.3¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralLeeds United FC at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Leeds United FCavg 88.5¢ | $3.4K | $3.6K | +$224.84 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Sunderland AFCavg 11.5¢ | $739.59 | $704.82 | -$259.01 | 52% 16365-14925 (31290) |
CA Cannae | Leeds United FCavg 84¢ | $526.85 | $554.73 | +$27.88 | 53% 13609-12050 (25659) |
AN Anon455 | Leeds United FCavg 84¢ | $186.38 | $172.4 | +$15.84 | 56% 2044-1603 (3647) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Sunderland AFCavg 9¢ | $4.95 | $6.05 | +$1.1 | 51% 6631-6378 (13009) |
Invested
$3,370.87
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$224.84
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
Invested
$739.59
Value
$704.82
PnL
-$259.01
Record
52%
16365-14925 (31290)
Invested
$526.85
Value
$554.73
PnL
+$27.88
Record
53%
13609-12050 (25659)
Invested
$186.38
Value
$172.4
PnL
+$15.84
Record
56%
2044-1603 (3647)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$6.05
PnL
+$1.1
Record
51%
6631-6378 (13009)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.