Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (99%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 1.0¢ · $54 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Over
3
Over 67%
$54.22
-$31.08
Research grade
AvoidOver at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 99%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 71¢ | $37.63 | $52.47 | +$14.84 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 29¢ | $47.56 | $1.64 | -$45.92 | 61% 4558-2887 (7445) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 1¢ | $0.11 | $0.11 | +$0 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.