Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 91¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
3
Under 67%
1 arb excluded
$15.7K
$2.5K
82.4¢ → 91¢
+10% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 91%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72 | Underavg 82.3¢ | $10.5K | $13.0K | +$2.5K | 72% 1847-728 (2575) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 70.5¢ | $2.7K | $2.5K | -$280.91 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 70.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.8K | +$402.84 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 18.1¢ | $1.4K | $673.19 | -$683.74 | |
ZX zxc368 | Underavg 99.9¢ | $125.28 | $114.12 | -$11.16 | 99% 9100-129 (9229) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Overavg 66¢ | $117.81 | $112.36 | -$5.45 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
Invested
$10,495.08
Value
$13.0K
PnL
+$2.5K
Record
72%
1847-728 (2575)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$2,744.47
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$280.91
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
Both legs:
Invested
$125.28
Value
$114.12
PnL
-$11.16
Record
99%
9100-129 (9229)
Invested
$117.81
Value
$112.36
PnL
-$5.45
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.