Will Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw?

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 74¢ · $45K held · ended Oct 25

Yes74¢No26¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$45.0K

Combined PnL

$13.4K

Smart Money Entry

36.6¢ → 73.5¢

+101% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 74%

Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 16 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes74%

No27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$35.5K

Total Shares52,448

Combined PnL+$16.1K

No4 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares18,828

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 36.7¢	$15.2K	$29.1K	+$13.9K	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
AN Anon455CTR	Noavg 58.9¢	$10.9K	$8.2K	$-2.7K	56% 2044-1603 (3647)
LI Lilybaeum	Yesavg 41.8¢	$1.6K	$2.3K	+$652.19	65% 12565-6695 (19260)
RN1	Yesavg 30.6¢	$904.58	$2.0K	+$1.1K	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 41.5¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$153.92	58% 1478-1088 (2566)
└ No leg	Noavg 41.5¢	$884.18	$724.03	-$160.14
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 64.7¢	$317.94	$324.16	+$6.22
0010001000001100	Yesavg 30¢	$610.61	$844.68	+$234.07	63% 1152-666 (1818)
LA lavendergooms	Yesavg 46¢	$479.22	$588.61	+$109.39	60% 2388-1596 (3984)
HRTrading	Yesavg 31.1¢	$108.59	$230.25	+$121.66	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
RE retarb	Yesavg 46¢	$161.5	$198.37	+$36.86	50% 3030-2994 (6024)
FO foooool	Yesavg 31¢	$74.71	$100.02	+$25.31	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Noavg 48.5¢	$88.78	$65.73	-$23.05	53% 12260-10982 (23242)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$51.06	$62.71	+$11.65	58% 16182-11818 (28000)
JI jiafanCTR<$100	Noavg 70¢	$61.5	$61	-$0.5	61% 1318-837 (2155)
CA Cannae<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$39.92	$55.22	+$0.67	53% 13609-12050 (25659)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$41.4	$53.82	+$0.69	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
SH shiifoo<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$38.32	$52.07	+$13.75	61% 2606-1660 (4266)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 64.2¢	$16.05	$14.63	-$1.43	55% 4880-4051 (8931)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$15,242.54

Value

$29.1K

PnL

+$13.9K

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

Anon455CTR

Invested

$10,922.8

Value

$8.2K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

Lilybaeum

Yes

Invested

$1,627.77

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$652.19

Record

65%

12565-6695 (19260)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$904.58

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$1,202.12

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$153.92

Record

58%

1478-1088 (2566)

Both legs:

No$884.1841.5¢-$160.14

Yes$317.9464.7¢+$6.22

0010001000001100

Yes

Invested

$610.61

Value

$844.68

PnL

+$234.07

Record

63%

1152-666 (1818)

lavendergooms

Yes

Invested

$479.22

Value

$588.61

PnL

+$109.39

Record

60%

2388-1596 (3984)

HRTrading

Yes

Invested

$108.59

Value

$230.25

PnL

+$121.66

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

retarb

Yes

Invested

$161.5

Value

$198.37

PnL

+$36.86

Record

50%

3030-2994 (6024)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$74.71

Value

$100.02

PnL

+$25.31

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Invested

$88.78

Value

$65.73

PnL

-$23.05

Record

53%

12260-10982 (23242)

BillBenter2026<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.06

Value

$62.71

PnL

+$11.65

Record

58%

16182-11818 (28000)

jiafanCTR<$100

Invested

$61.5

Value

$61

PnL

-$0.5

Record

61%

1318-837 (2155)

Cannae<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.92

Value

$55.22

PnL

+$0.67

Record

53%

13609-12050 (25659)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.4

Value

$53.82

PnL

+$0.69

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

shiifoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.32

Value

$52.07

PnL

+$13.75

Record

61%

2606-1660 (4266)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$16.05

Value

$14.63

PnL

-$1.43

Record

55%

4880-4051 (8931)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 74%

Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 16 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.