Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 71¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25

Yes30¢No70¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

-$46.25

Smart Money Entry

48.5¢ → 70.5¢

+45% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares7,697

Combined PnL-$47.34

Yes1 trader

Total Value$5.88

Total Shares11

Combined PnL+$1.08

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$2.65	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$0
└ No leg	Noavg 48.1¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$2.65
CA Cannae	Noavg 48¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$7.21	53% 13585-12026 (25611)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 49.5¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$39.57	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 48¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$0	58% 31731-22975 (54706)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$124.52	$125.91	+$0.7	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51¢	$69.87	$71.24	+$0.69
└ No leg	Noavg 48¢	$54.65	$54.67	+$0.02
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 48¢	$74.88	$74.88	-$0	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 41.6¢	$14.3	$16.49	+$2.19	50% 8825-8766 (17591)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 59.1¢	$14.61	$11.86	-$2.75	57% 1506-1114 (2620)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Noavg 48¢	$6.24	$6.24	-$0	75% 2665-901 (3566)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 42.4¢	$4.79	$5.88	+$1.08	53% 1872-1637 (3509)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,061.26

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$2.65

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

Both legs:

Yes$1,556.8752¢+$0

No$1,504.3948.1¢-$2.65

Cannae

Invested

$1,414.46

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$7.21

Record

53%

13585-12026 (25611)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,330.67

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$39.57

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,142.69

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

31731-22975 (54706)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$124.52

Value

$125.91

PnL

+$0.7

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

Both legs:

Yes$69.8751¢+$0.69

No$54.6548¢+$0.02

foooool<$100

Invested

$74.88

Value

$74.88

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$14.3

Value

$16.49

PnL

+$2.19

Record

50%

8825-8766 (17591)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$14.61

Value

$11.86

PnL

-$2.75

Record

57%

1506-1114 (2620)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Invested

$6.24

Value

$6.24

PnL

-$0

Record

75%

2665-901 (3566)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.79

Value

$5.88

PnL

+$1.08

Record

53%

1872-1637 (3509)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.