Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 67¢ · $64K held · ended Oct 25

Over33¢Under67¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$64.0K

Combined PnL

$8.3K

Smart Money Entry

68¢ → 67¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over33%

Under67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$47.1K

Total Shares56,389

Combined PnL+$8.7K

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares8,328

Combined PnL-$368.1

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JS Jsram	Underavg 68¢	$37.8K	$46.4K	+$8.6K	55% 127-106 (233)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Overavg 32¢	$10.2K	$11.4K	$-2.6K	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
└ Over leg	Overavg 32¢	$6.5K	$7.1K	$-3.2K
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.6¢	$3.7K	$4.3K	+$550.89
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 47.4¢	$2.1K	$3.0K	+$996.47	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.4¢	$1.5K	$2.0K	+$529.82
└ Over leg	Overavg 19.4¢	$543.87	$1.0K	+$466.66
RN1CTR	Overavg 40.3¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$6.49	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
HRTradingCTR	Overavg 32¢	$476.52	$530.68	+$54.16	58% 1472-1088 (2560)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 76¢	$380	$417.5	+$37.5	51% 980-932 (1912)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR	Overavg 32¢	$727.53	$375.13	-$352.4	55% 1302-1044 (2346)
FO foooool	Underavg 69.2¢	$146.51	$176.91	+$30.4	51% 6565-6327 (12892)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Overavg 20¢	$190.45	$157.12	-$33.33	63% 22592-13331 (35923)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 31¢	$96.16	$66.11	-$30.05	58% 31667-22925 (54592)
AR ARocky33<$100	Underavg 33¢	$22.57	$33.17	+$10.6	76% 3207-1028 (4235)

Jsram

Under

Invested

$37,814.16

Value

$46.4K

PnL

+$8.6K

Record

55%

127-106 (233)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Over

Invested

$10,231.76

Value

$11.4K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

Both legs:

Over$6,505.332¢$-3.2K

Under$3,726.4656.6¢+$550.89

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,052.99

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$996.47

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

Both legs:

Under$1,509.1247.4¢+$529.82

Over$543.8719.4¢+$466.66

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,403.77

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$6.49

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

HRTradingCTR

Over

Invested

$476.52

Value

$530.68

PnL

+$54.16

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$380

Value

$417.5

PnL

+$37.5

Record

51%

980-932 (1912)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR

Over

Invested

$727.53

Value

$375.13

PnL

-$352.4

Record

55%

1302-1044 (2346)

foooool

Under

Invested

$146.51

Value

$176.91

PnL

+$30.4

Record

51%

6565-6327 (12892)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Over

Invested

$190.45

Value

$157.12

PnL

-$33.33

Record

63%

22592-13331 (35923)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$96.16

Value

$66.11

PnL

-$30.05

Record

58%

31667-22925 (54592)

ARocky33<$100

Under

Invested

$22.57

Value

$33.17

PnL

+$10.6

Record

76%

3207-1028 (4235)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.