Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 47¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$2.3K
-$55.62
45.9¢ → 46.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 47%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JS JsramCTR | Underavg 46¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$46.25 | 55% 127-106 (233) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Overavg 59¢ | $205.73 | $195.27 | -$10.46 | 65% 1525-819 (2344) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 43.9¢ | $39.17 | $40.16 | +$0.99 | 58% 1429-1045 (2474) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Underavg 41¢ | $8.09 | $8.88 | +$0.1 | 53% 13575-12013 (25588) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $2.45 | $2.45 | +$0 | 56% 6332-5072 (11404) |
Invested
$2,127.5
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$46.25
Record
55%
127-106 (233)
Invested
$205.73
Value
$195.27
PnL
-$10.46
Record
65%
1525-819 (2344)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$39.17
Value
$40.16
PnL
+$0.99
Record
58%
1429-1045 (2474)
Invested
$8.09
Value
$8.88
PnL
+$0.1
Record
53%
13575-12013 (25588)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.45
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
6332-5072 (11404)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.