Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 1.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 83%
$3.4K
$-4.8K
36.2¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 76¢ | $3.0K | $3.2K | +$140.52 | 52% 16287-14836 (31123) |
CA CannaeCTR | Underavg 21¢ | $104.72 | $154.42 | +$49.72 | 53% 13578-12019 (25597) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 29.3¢ | $45.22 | $27.06 | -$18.16 | 55% 43540-35826 (79366) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Underavg 21¢ | $50 | $18.75 | +$8.25 | 52% 5509-5116 (10625) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 37.6¢ | $2.6K | $3.41 | $-2.6K | 68% 31167-14971 (46138) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Underavg 36¢ | $2.4K | $3.39 | $-2.4K | 59% 13928-9661 (23589) |
Invested
$3,031.79
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$140.52
Record
52%
16287-14836 (31123)
Invested
$104.72
Value
$154.42
PnL
+$49.72
Record
53%
13578-12019 (25597)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$45.22
Value
$27.06
PnL
-$18.16
Record
55%
43540-35826 (79366)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$50
Value
$18.75
PnL
+$8.25
Record
52%
5509-5116 (10625)
Invested
$2,566.37
Value
$3.41
PnL
$-2.6K
Record
68%
31167-14971 (46138)
Invested
$2,437.68
Value
$3.39
PnL
$-2.4K
Record
59%
13928-9661 (23589)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.