Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Manchester United FC O/U 1.5

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 86¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Over14¢Under86¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$211.41

Smart Money Entry

69.4¢ → 85.5¢

+23% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 86%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,459

Combined PnL+$211.91

Over1 trader

Total Value$4.95

Total Shares10

Combined PnL-$0.5

Under — 83%Over — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 66.6¢	$982.42	$1.1K	+$152.69	50% 8808-8746 (17554)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 76.5¢	$651.18	$706.5	+$55.32	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 59¢	$48.93	$51.41	+$2.49	50% 7761-7812 (15573)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100	Underavg 48¢	$22.57	$29.16	+$1.41	47% 1978-2210 (4188)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$5	$4.95	-$0.5	61% 4538-2871 (7409)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 62¢	$2.17	$2.17	+$0	58% 1472-1088 (2560)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$982.42

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$152.69

Record

50%

8808-8746 (17554)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$651.18

Value

$706.5

PnL

+$55.32

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$48.93

Value

$51.41

PnL

+$2.49

Record

50%

7761-7812 (15573)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100

Under

Invested

$22.57

Value

$29.16

PnL

+$1.41

Record

47%

1978-2210 (4188)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.5

Record

61%

4538-2871 (7409)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$2.17

Value

$2.17

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 86%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.