Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold AFC Bournemouth (60%) · AFC Bournemouth at 88¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25

Manchester United FC13¢AFC Bournemouth87¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

AFC Bournemouth

Consensus Traders

AFC Bournemouth 60%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$73.28

Smart Money Entry

80.3¢ → 87.5¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralAFC Bournemouth at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

AFC Bournemouth

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Manchester United FC13%

AFC Bournemouth88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

AFC Bournemouth6 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,156

Combined PnL+$71.71

Manchester United FC4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares6,562

Combined PnL+$1.56

AFC Bournemouth — 60%Manchester United FC — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	AFC Bournemouthavg 80¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$2.07	52% 16273-14816 (31089)
UP UpTheBlues	AFC Bournemouthavg 80.6¢	$746.5	$800.99	+$54.49	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
AgricultureSecretaryCTR	Manchester United FCavg 19¢	$570	$600	+$30	83% 3612-744 (4356)
CA Cannae	AFC Bournemouthavg 79.7¢	$310.5	$319.71	+$9.22	53% 13578-12019 (25597)
RN1	AFC Bournemouthavg 82¢	$273.33	$281.67	+$8.33	55% 43532-35822 (79354)
SN SnakeBall	AFC Bournemouthavg 81¢	$232.46	$233.9	+$1.43	50% 8804-8737 (17541)
FR frohp5CTR	Manchester United FCavg 16¢	$250	$226.56	-$23.44	65% 1719-926 (2645)
DO DolphinBallerCTR	Manchester United FCavg 19¢	$190	$200	+$10	46% 62-74 (136)
BE berlinskiesCTR	Manchester United FCavg 16¢	$159.99	$144.99	-$15	57% 4829-3602 (8431)
SA Saber-greed<$100	AFC Bournemouthavg 81¢	$49.8	$50.1	+$0.31	59% 2263-1576 (3839)

GoalLineGhost

AFC Bournemouth

Invested

$1,824.1

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$2.07

Record

52%

16273-14816 (31089)

UpTheBlues

AFC Bournemouth

Invested

$746.5

Value

$800.99

PnL

+$54.49

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

AgricultureSecretaryCTR

Manchester United FC

Invested

$570

Value

$600

PnL

+$30

Record

83%

3612-744 (4356)

Cannae

AFC Bournemouth

Invested

$310.5

Value

$319.71

PnL

+$9.22

Record

53%

13578-12019 (25597)

RN1

AFC Bournemouth

Invested

$273.33

Value

$281.67

PnL

+$8.33

Record

55%

43532-35822 (79354)

SnakeBall

AFC Bournemouth

Invested

$232.46

Value

$233.9

PnL

+$1.43

Record

50%

8804-8737 (17541)

frohp5CTR

Manchester United FC

Invested

$250

Value

$226.56

PnL

-$23.44

Record

65%

1719-926 (2645)

DolphinBallerCTR

Manchester United FC

Invested

$190

Value

$200

PnL

+$10

Record

46%

62-74 (136)

berlinskiesCTR

Manchester United FC

Invested

$159.99

Value

$144.99

PnL

-$15

Record

57%

4829-3602 (8431)

Saber-greed<$100

AFC Bournemouth

Invested

$49.8

Value

$50.1

PnL

+$0.31

Record

59%

2263-1576 (3839)

Research grade

NeutralAFC Bournemouth at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

AFC Bournemouth

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that AFC Bournemouth wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.