Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold AFC Bournemouth (67%) · AFC Bournemouth at 63¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 25
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Neutral
AFC Bournemouth
6
AFC Bournemouth 67%
$7.7K
$145.52
55.7¢ → 62.5¢
+12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralAFC Bournemouth at 63%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | AFC Bournemouthavg 59.8¢ | $3.9K | $3.9K | +$10.77 | 68% 31167-14971 (46138) |
GO GoalLineGhost | AFC Bournemouthavg 57.4¢ | $3.3K | $3.4K | +$117.34 | 52% 16287-14836 (31123) |
CA CannaeCTR | Manchester United FCavg 85¢ | $263.49 | $264.18 | +$9.16 | 53% 13578-12019 (25597) |
SC SchruteBucks<$100 | AFC Bournemouthavg 13¢ | $65 | $70 | +$5 | 56% 1666-1334 (3000) |
FO foooool<$100 | AFC Bournemouthavg 16¢ | $50 | $53.12 | +$3.12 | 51% 6565-6327 (12892) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Manchester United FCavg 82¢ | $10.66 | $10.79 | +$0.13 | 55% 43540-35826 (79366) |
Invested
$3,879.97
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$10.77
Record
68%
31167-14971 (46138)
Invested
$3,255.34
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$117.34
Record
52%
16287-14836 (31123)
Invested
$263.49
Value
$264.18
PnL
+$9.16
Record
53%
13578-12019 (25597)
Invested
$65
Value
$70
PnL
+$5
Record
56%
1666-1334 (3000)
Invested
$50
Value
$53.12
PnL
+$3.12
Record
51%
6565-6327 (12892)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$10.66
Value
$10.79
PnL
+$0.13
Record
55%
43540-35826 (79366)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.