Will Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw?

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 90¢ · $26K held · ended Oct 25

Yes10¢No90¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.8K

Combined PnL

$164.54

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 90¢

+3% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 16 top traders (69%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$17.7K

Total Shares20,182

Combined PnL+$127.47

Yes5 traders

Total Value$207.97

Total Shares1,420

Combined PnL+$37.07

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 88¢	$8.9K	$9.0K	+$50.57	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 76.4¢	$5.8K	$4.8K	-$952.97	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
└ No leg	Noavg 76.4¢	$3.2K	$3.7K	+$542.55
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24.6¢	$2.6K	$1.1K	$-1.5K
oieshfn345	Noavg 88.3¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$103.17	57% 1457-1081 (2538)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 88¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$15.21	50% 8808-8746 (17554)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 79.6¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$277.99	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
└ No leg	Noavg 79.6¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$138.21
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25¢	$770.75	$354.55	-$416.21
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100	Noavg 76¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$100	51% 980-932 (1912)
└ No leg	Noavg 76¢	$760	$700	-$60
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32¢	$640	$600	-$40
0010001000001100	Noavg 73.8¢	$634.45	$602.02	-$32.43	63% 1142-663 (1805)
AV averagejoetraders	Noavg 90¢	$572.6	$563.05	-$9.54	56% 465-363 (828)
CA Cannae	Noavg 74¢	$344.85	$326.21	-$2.33	53% 13578-12019 (25597)
GH ghostorderCTR	Yesavg 10¢	$115	$132.25	+$17.25	68% 3930-1880 (5810)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Noavg 75¢	$102.29	$106.74	+$4.46	65% 12547-6672 (19219)
└ No leg	Noavg 75¢	$60	$56	-$4
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25¢	$42.29	$50.74	+$8.46
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 66.2¢	$97.34	$105.21	+$7.87	53% 12226-10956 (23182)
JI jiafan<$100	Noavg 73¢	$84.21	$80.74	-$3.46	61% 1309-832 (2141)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$13.23	$30.58	+$17.35	56% 2027-1581 (3608)
AR ARocky33<$100	Noavg 93¢	$30.69	$29.21	-$1.48	76% 3207-1028 (4235)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$26.19	$29.1	+$0.49	66% 2853-1494 (4347)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.1¢	$9.63	$10.64	+$1.01	58% 1472-1088 (2560)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.4¢	$4.43	$5.4	+$0.97	59% 13928-9661 (23589)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 70¢	$3.5	$3.5	+$0	55% 4845-4030 (8875)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100	Noavg 75¢	$3	$2.8	-$0.1	55% 3864-3162 (7026)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$8,899.72

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$50.57

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$5,780.58

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$952.97

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

Both legs:

No$3,172.2876.4¢+$542.55

Yes$2,608.324.6¢$-1.5K

oieshfn345

Invested

$4,220.57

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$103.17

Record

57%

1457-1081 (2538)

SnakeBall

Invested

$2,677.18

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$15.21

Record

50%

8808-8746 (17554)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$2,005.4

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$277.99

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

Both legs:

No$1,234.6579.6¢+$138.21

Yes$770.7525¢-$416.21

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100

Invested

$1,400

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$100

Record

51%

980-932 (1912)

Both legs:

No$76076¢-$60

Yes$64032¢-$40

0010001000001100

Invested

$634.45

Value

$602.02

PnL

-$32.43

Record

63%

1142-663 (1805)

averagejoetraders

Invested

$572.6

Value

$563.05

PnL

-$9.54

Record

56%

465-363 (828)

Cannae

Invested

$344.85

Value

$326.21

PnL

-$2.33

Record

53%

13578-12019 (25597)

ghostorderCTR

Yes

Invested

$115

Value

$132.25

PnL

+$17.25

Record

68%

3930-1880 (5810)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Invested

$102.29

Value

$106.74

PnL

+$4.46

Record

65%

12547-6672 (19219)

Both legs:

No$6075¢-$4

Yes$42.2925¢+$8.46

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$97.34

Value

$105.21

PnL

+$7.87

Record

53%

12226-10956 (23182)

jiafan<$100

Invested

$84.21

Value

$80.74

PnL

-$3.46

Record

61%

1309-832 (2141)

Anon455CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.23

Value

$30.58

PnL

+$17.35

Record

56%

2027-1581 (3608)

ARocky33<$100

Invested

$30.69

Value

$29.21

PnL

-$1.48

Record

76%

3207-1028 (4235)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.19

Value

$29.1

PnL

+$0.49

Record

66%

2853-1494 (4347)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.63

Value

$10.64

PnL

+$1.01

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.43

Value

$5.4

PnL

+$0.97

Record

59%

13928-9661 (23589)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

4845-4030 (8875)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100

Invested

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$0.1

Record

55%

3864-3162 (7026)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 16 top traders (69%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.