Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 9.5 Total Corners
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 0.4¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 40%
$1.5K
-$491.77
54¢ → 0.4¢
-99% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justwinsCTR | Overavg 54¢ | $1.1K | $958.17 | -$191.63 | 51% 140-135 (275) |
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72 | Underavg 79¢ | $497.7 | $346.5 | -$151.2 | 72% 1833-721 (2554) |
RO Rock.San | Underavg 99.1¢ | $334.46 | $185.62 | -$148.84 | 89% 7663-952 (8615) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $7.42 | $7.56 | +$0.14 | 50% 7766-7815 (15581) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $5.64 | $5.4 | -$0.24 | 61% 4541-2874 (7415) |
Invested
$1,149.81
Value
$958.17
PnL
-$191.63
Record
51%
140-135 (275)
Invested
$497.7
Value
$346.5
PnL
-$151.2
Record
72%
1833-721 (2554)
Invested
$334.46
Value
$185.62
PnL
-$148.84
Record
89%
7663-952 (8615)
Invested
$7.42
Value
$7.56
PnL
+$0.14
Record
50%
7766-7815 (15581)
Invested
$5.64
Value
$5.4
PnL
-$0.24
Record
61%
4541-2874 (7415)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.