Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Manchester United FC O/U 5.5 Corners
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 48¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 67%
$1.9K
$15
47.4¢ → 48¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 48%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 47¢ | $705 | $720 | +$15 | 58% 31634-22891 (54525) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 52¢ | $599.69 | $599.69 | -$0 | 50% 8797-8727 (17524) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Overavg 48¢ | $554.4 | $554.4 | +$0 | 61% 4492-2864 (7356) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.