Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 42¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$2.4K
$81.21
46.1¢ → 41.5¢
-10% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 42%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 48.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$18.72 | 68% 31167-14971 (46138) |
 RN1CTR | Noavg 42.9¢ | $330.25 | $353.8 | +$23.55 | 55% 43540-35826 (79366) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR | Noavg 47¢ | $210 | $250 | +$40 | 51% 980-932 (1912) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 39.8¢ | $195.76 | $245.81 | +$50.05 | 53% 13578-12019 (25597) |
 0xheavy888ARB<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | $204 | $224 | +$17 | 56% 6357-5092 (11449) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 62¢ | $124 | $124 | -$3 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 40¢ | $80 | $100 | +$20 | |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 47.1¢ | $230.89 | $215.77 | -$15.13 | 50% 8808-8746 (17554) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 42.8¢ | $29.76 | $32.49 | +$2.73 | 58% 1472-1088 (2560) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Noavg 40.7¢ | $26.95 | $25.68 | -$1.27 | 51% 6565-6327 (12892) |
Invested
$1,074.09
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$18.72
Record
68%
31167-14971 (46138)
RN1CTRInvested
$330.25
Value
$353.8
PnL
+$23.55
Record
55%
43540-35826 (79366)
Invested
$210
Value
$250
PnL
+$40
Record
51%
980-932 (1912)
Invested
$195.76
Value
$245.81
PnL
+$50.05
Record
53%
13578-12019 (25597)
0xheavy888ARB<$100Invested
$204
Value
$224
PnL
+$17
Record
56%
6357-5092 (11449)
Both legs:
Invested
$230.89
Value
$215.77
PnL
-$15.13
Record
50%
8808-8746 (17554)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$29.76
Value
$32.49
PnL
+$2.73
Record
58%
1472-1088 (2560)
Invested
$26.95
Value
$25.68
PnL
-$1.27
Record
51%
6565-6327 (12892)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.