Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-25?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 70¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$9.2K
$75.86
69.1¢ → 69.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 68.5¢ | $4.1K | $4.2K | +$58.1 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
TN tnlCTR | Yesavg 30.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$29.42 | 51% 465-448 (913) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 68¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$29.39 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
OR OrwellFactory | Noavg 73¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$59.5 | 56% 304-237 (541) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 68.2¢ | $929.07 | $946.78 | +$17.71 | 53% 13553-11995 (25548) |
JI jiafanCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $62 | $63 | +$1 | 61% 1297-825 (2122) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $35.88 | $35.62 | -$0.26 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$4,143.18
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$58.1
Record
58%
31395-22700 (54095)
Invested
$1,428.44
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$29.42
Record
51%
465-448 (913)
Invested
$1,332.38
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$29.39
Record
52%
16158-14689 (30847)
Invested
$1,240.97
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$59.5
Record
56%
304-237 (541)
Invested
$929.07
Value
$946.78
PnL
+$17.71
Record
53%
13553-11995 (25548)
Invested
$62
Value
$63
PnL
+$1
Record
61%
1297-825 (2122)
Invested
$35.88
Value
$35.62
PnL
-$0.26
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.