Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 5.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 94¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 86%
1 arb excluded
$13.8K
-$10.65
87.8¢ → 93.5¢
+6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 94%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 87.5¢ | $5.3K | $5.5K | +$180.93 | 55% 43540-35826 (79366) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 86.9¢ | $3.9K | $4.0K | +$128.31 | 52% 16287-14836 (31123) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 89.3¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$34.69 | 68% 31167-14971 (46138) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Overavg 12.8¢ | $1.7K | $1.3K | -$358.96 | 59% 13928-9661 (23589) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 89.9¢ | $903.66 | $904.86 | +$1.2 | 50% 8808-8746 (17554) |
 HRTradingARB<$100 | Overavg 10¢ | $84.28 | $89.42 | +$5.14 | 58% 1472-1088 (2560) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 89.5¢ | $49.38 | $51.61 | +$2.23 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 10¢ | $58.17 | $37.81 | +$2.91 | |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 89¢ | $65.86 | $66.6 | +$1.48 | 54% 13815-11594 (25409) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 87¢ | $49.59 | $51.3 | +$1.71 | 51% 6565-6327 (12892) |
RN1Invested
$5,329.46
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$180.93
Record
55%
43540-35826 (79366)
Invested
$3,911.31
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$128.31
Record
52%
16287-14836 (31123)
Invested
$1,846.7
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$34.69
Record
68%
31167-14971 (46138)
Invested
$1,658.71
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$358.96
Record
59%
13928-9661 (23589)
Invested
$903.66
Value
$904.86
PnL
+$1.2
Record
50%
8808-8746 (17554)
HRTradingARB<$100Invested
$84.28
Value
$89.42
PnL
+$5.14
Record
58%
1472-1088 (2560)
Both legs:
Invested
$65.86
Value
$66.6
PnL
+$1.48
Record
54%
13815-11594 (25409)
Invested
$49.59
Value
$51.3
PnL
+$1.71
Record
51%
6565-6327 (12892)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.