Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (82%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 4.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 19¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 25

Over19¢Under81¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Entry

39.3¢ → 18.5¢

-53% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Under 82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over19%

Under82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares15,599

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,446

Combined PnL+$29.02

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 69.6¢	$4.9K	$4.0K	-$861.16	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
└ Under leg	Underavg 69.6¢	$2.6K	$3.0K	+$442.28
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.6¢	$2.3K	$1.0K	$-1.3K
RN1CTR	Overavg 40.5¢	$5.7K	$3.7K	$-1.9K	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
TO torta.tech	Underavg 73.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$1.2	75% 6121-2030 (8151)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 75.7¢	$415.83	$442.29	+$26.46	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
0X 0x5415e0326703e29A16f6B260Ce3C85692EF0F764-1781687530226CTR	Overavg 19¢	$183.8	$198.32	+$14.51	38% 154-253 (407)
LA LaarsYCTR	Overavg 43¢	$215	$150	-$65	50% 2984-3011 (5995)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 43¢	$107.5	$75	-$32.5	56% 2027-1581 (3608)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 77¢	$50.34	$52.99	+$2.65	54% 13815-11594 (25409)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 79¢	$11.29	$10	-$1.29	51% 6565-6327 (12892)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$1.08	$0.9	-$0.18	58% 1472-1088 (2560)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$4,902.32

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$861.16

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

Both legs:

Under$2,596.2969.6¢+$442.28

Over$2,306.0342.6¢$-1.3K

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$5,663.12

Value

$3.7K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

torta.tech

Under

Invested

$1,335.7

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$1.2

Record

75%

6121-2030 (8151)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$415.83

Value

$442.29

PnL

+$26.46

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

0x5415e0326703e29A16f6B260Ce3C85692EF0F764-1781687530226CTR

Over

Invested

$183.8

Value

$198.32

PnL

+$14.51

Record

38%

154-253 (407)

LaarsYCTR

Over

Invested

$215

Value

$150

PnL

-$65

Record

50%

2984-3011 (5995)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$107.5

Value

$75

PnL

-$32.5

Record

56%

2027-1581 (3608)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$50.34

Value

$52.99

PnL

+$2.65

Record

54%

13815-11594 (25409)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$11.29

Value

$10

PnL

-$1.29

Record

51%

6565-6327 (12892)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.08

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$0.18

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Under 82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.3%

18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$392.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

493.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.