Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 60¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 25

Over40¢Under60¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$21.46

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 60¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,935

Combined PnL-$1.12

Over1 trader

Total Value$766.82

Total Shares1,917

Combined PnL-$20.33

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Underavg 60¢	$902.88	$902.93	+$0.05	58% 31536-22821 (54357)
JI jiafanCTR	Overavg 40.6¢	$777.57	$766.82	-$20.33	61% 1302-828 (2130)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 60¢	$151.83	$151.83	-$0.17	54% 13750-11556 (25306)
0xheavy888	Underavg 60¢	$120	$120	-$1	56% 6332-5072 (11404)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$902.88

Value

$902.93

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

31536-22821 (54357)

jiafanCTR

Over

Invested

$777.57

Value

$766.82

PnL

-$20.33

Record

61%

1302-828 (2130)

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$151.83

Value

$151.83

PnL

-$0.17

Record

54%

13750-11556 (25306)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$120

Value

$120

PnL

-$1

Record

56%

6332-5072 (11404)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.