Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 62¢ · $604 held · ends Oct 25

Over62¢Under38¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 80%

Total Value

$603.87

Combined PnL

-$3.24

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 61.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over62%

Under39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$554.55

Total Shares903

Combined PnL-$5.29

Under1 trader

Total Value$49.32

Total Shares137

Combined PnL+$2.06

Over — 80%Under — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Overavg 62¢	$930	$430.59	-$3.5	58% 31395-22700 (54095)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 62¢	$70.06	$68.93	-$1.13	54% 13697-11517 (25214)
CA Cannae<$100	Overavg 62.1¢	$51.14	$50.63	-$0.52	53% 13553-11995 (25548)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$50.69	$49.32	+$2.06	61% 4366-2803 (7169)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Overavg 63¢	$4.55	$4.4	-$0.14	65% 1523-816 (2339)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$930

Value

$430.59

PnL

-$3.5

Record

58%

31395-22700 (54095)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$70.06

Value

$68.93

PnL

-$1.13

Record

54%

13697-11517 (25214)

Cannae<$100

Over

Invested

$51.14

Value

$50.63

PnL

-$0.52

Record

53%

13553-11995 (25548)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$50.69

Value

$49.32

PnL

+$2.06

Record

61%

4366-2803 (7169)

darkumbreon88<$100

Over

Invested

$4.55

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$0.14

Record

65%

1523-816 (2339)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.