Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $15K held · ended Oct 25

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.8K

Combined PnL

-$256.85

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares14,273

Combined PnL-$325.41

Under5 traders

Total Value$648.71

Total Shares3,364

Combined PnL+$68.56

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CoinTrick	Overavg 99.9¢	$13.0K	$13.0K	+$6.51	98% 2411-60 (2471)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 14.4¢	$622.16	$395.32	-$226.84	52% 16273-14816 (31089)
└ Over leg	Overavg 80¢	$197.08	$232.8	+$35.72
└ Under leg	Underavg 14.4¢	$425.08	$162.52	-$262.56
timebrotime	Overavg 84¢	$500	$303.57	-$196.43	67% 759-373 (1132)
NO NordhavenCap	Overavg 96¢	$242.95	$239.15	-$3.8	58% 1698-1222 (2920)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 17.6¢	$210.98	$230.2	+$19.22	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
DA darkumbreon88	Overavg 83¢	$336.11	$206.52	-$129.58	65% 1536-822 (2358)
RN1CTR	Underavg 15¢	$163.81	$201.99	+$38.18	55% 43532-35822 (79354)
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 15.3¢	$137.79	$148.25	+$10.47	53% 13578-12019 (25597)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$41.4	$42.69	+$1.29	50% 8804-8737 (17541)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$26.17	$25.58	-$0.59	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 84¢	$5.38	$3.26	-$2.11	54% 13813-11594 (25407)

CoinTrick

Over

Invested

$13,000.82

Value

$13.0K

PnL

+$6.51

Record

98%

2411-60 (2471)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$622.16

Value

$395.32

PnL

-$226.84

Record

52%

16273-14816 (31089)

Both legs:

Over$197.0880¢+$35.72

Under$425.0814.4¢-$262.56

timebrotime

Over

Invested

$500

Value

$303.57

PnL

-$196.43

Record

67%

759-373 (1132)

NordhavenCap

Over

Invested

$242.95

Value

$239.15

PnL

-$3.8

Record

58%

1698-1222 (2920)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$210.98

Value

$230.2

PnL

+$19.22

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

darkumbreon88

Over

Invested

$336.11

Value

$206.52

PnL

-$129.58

Record

65%

1536-822 (2358)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$163.81

Value

$201.99

PnL

+$38.18

Record

55%

43532-35822 (79354)

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$137.79

Value

$148.25

PnL

+$10.47

Record

53%

13578-12019 (25597)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41.4

Value

$42.69

PnL

+$1.29

Record

50%

8804-8737 (17541)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.17

Value

$25.58

PnL

-$0.59

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$5.38

Value

$3.26

PnL

-$2.11

Record

54%

13813-11594 (25407)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.