Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 0.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 100¢ · $63K held · ended Oct 25

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$62.5K

Combined PnL

-$41.56

Smart Money Entry

99.5¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$61.8K

Total Shares61,940

Combined PnL-$31.73

Under4 traders

Total Value$754.59

Total Shares15,460

Combined PnL-$9.83

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LA landighertz	Overavg 99.9¢	$50.0K	$50.0K	+$25	99% 1071-4 (1075)
0F 0F62	Overavg 97¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	-$84.22	52% 1929-1753 (3682)
ZX zxc368	Overavg 99.9¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$2	99% 9010-127 (9137)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 95¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$24.93	52% 16273-14816 (31089)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 4¢	$656.64	$695.2	+$38.56	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 95.4¢	$91.59	$92.16	+$0.57	54% 13813-11594 (25407)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 3.8¢	$25.23	$29.88	+$4.65	55% 43532-35822 (79354)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$69.31	$16.03	-$53.28	58% 1463-1078 (2541)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 4.8¢	$13.24	$13.48	+$0.24	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Overavg 96.1¢	$10.47	$10.46	-$0.01	53% 1871-1637 (3508)

landighertz

Over

Invested

$49,950

Value

$50.0K

PnL

+$25

Record

99%

1071-4 (1075)

0F62

Over

Invested

$5,446.39

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$84.22

Record

52%

1929-1753 (3682)

zxc368

Over

Invested

$3,996

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$2

Record

99%

9010-127 (9137)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$2,263.05

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$24.93

Record

52%

16273-14816 (31089)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$656.64

Value

$695.2

PnL

+$38.56

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$91.59

Value

$92.16

PnL

+$0.57

Record

54%

13813-11594 (25407)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.23

Value

$29.88

PnL

+$4.65

Record

55%

43532-35822 (79354)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$69.31

Value

$16.03

PnL

-$53.28

Record

58%

1463-1078 (2541)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.24

Value

$13.48

PnL

+$0.24

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Over

Invested

$10.47

Value

$10.46

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

1871-1637 (3508)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.