Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (67%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Brighton & Hove Albion FC O/U 1.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 34¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 43%
$10.9K
-$447.67
42.9¢ → 33.5¢
-22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 34%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 isco22CTR | Overavg 43¢ | $8.5K | $8.5K | -$494.49 | 67% 111-55 (166) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Underavg 57¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$0 | 69% 4261-1921 (6182) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 61.4¢ | $913.11 | $951.76 | +$38.66 | 50% 8804-8737 (17541) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 59.6¢ | $110.36 | $119.34 | +$8.98 | 68% 31121-14960 (46081) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 36¢ | $55 | $52.71 | -$2.29 | 51% 6539-6324 (12863) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 39.5¢ | $41.88 | $45.58 | +$3.7 | 61% 4514-2866 (7380) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $44.48 | $42.26 | -$2.22 | 54% 13813-11594 (25407) |
isco22CTRInvested
$8,505.39
Value
$8.5K
PnL
-$494.49
Record
67%
111-55 (166)
Invested
$1,140
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
4261-1921 (6182)
Invested
$913.11
Value
$951.76
PnL
+$38.66
Record
50%
8804-8737 (17541)
Invested
$110.36
Value
$119.34
PnL
+$8.98
Record
68%
31121-14960 (46081)
Invested
$55
Value
$52.71
PnL
-$2.29
Record
51%
6539-6324 (12863)
Invested
$41.88
Value
$45.58
PnL
+$3.7
Record
61%
4514-2866 (7380)
Invested
$44.48
Value
$42.26
PnL
-$2.22
Record
54%
13813-11594 (25407)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.