Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Brighton & Hove Albion FC (67%) · Brighton & Hove Albion FC at 70¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Brighton & Hove Albion FC
6
Brighton & Hove Albion FC 67%
$5.1K
$1.4K
71.9¢ → 69.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralBrighton & Hove Albion FC at 70%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 67.8¢ | $2.3K | $2.7K | +$380.33 | 52% 16287-14836 (31123) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Liverpool FCavg 15.7¢ | $711.53 | $1.8K | +$1.1K | 68% 31167-14971 (46138) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 89¢ | $613.03 | $616.98 | +$3.96 | 65% 1536-823 (2359) |
FO foooool<$100 | Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 88¢ | $17.6 | $15.8 | -$1.8 | 51% 6565-6327 (12892) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Liverpool FCavg 40¢ | $25.07 | $13.16 | -$11.91 | 56% 2027-1581 (3608) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 64¢ | $8.89 | $8.96 | +$0.07 | 50% 8808-8746 (17554) |
Invested
$2,304.42
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$380.33
Record
52%
16287-14836 (31123)
Invested
$711.53
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
68%
31167-14971 (46138)
Invested
$613.03
Value
$616.98
PnL
+$3.96
Record
65%
1536-823 (2359)
Invested
$17.6
Value
$15.8
PnL
-$1.8
Record
51%
6565-6327 (12892)
Invested
$25.07
Value
$13.16
PnL
-$11.91
Record
56%
2027-1581 (3608)
Invested
$8.89
Value
$8.96
PnL
+$0.07
Record
50%
8808-8746 (17554)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.