Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Liverpool FC (38%) · Liverpool FC at 67¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 25

Liverpool FC67¢Brighton & Hove Albion FC33¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Liverpool FC

Consensus Traders

Liverpool FC 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.7K

Combined PnL

$4.1K

Smart Money Entry

34.3¢ → 66.5¢

+94% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralLiverpool FC at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Liverpool FC

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Liverpool FC67%

Brighton & Hove Albion FC34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Liverpool FC5 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares15,696

Combined PnL+$3.5K

Brighton & Hove Albion FC8 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,484

Combined PnL+$561.24

Liverpool FC — 38%Brighton & Hove Albion FC — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Liverpool FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Liverpool FC) and the top 1000 (7 on Brighton & Hove Albion FC) disagree here.

whaleLiverpool FC 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrBrighton & Hove Albion FC 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedLiverpool FC 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Brighton & Hove Albion FC 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Liverpool FCavg 37.3¢	$4.8K	$7.5K	+$2.7K	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
IM impaulCTR	Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 33¢	$1.0K	$1.8K	+$741.33	62% 179-110 (289)
RN1	Liverpool FCavg 24.2¢	$826.12	$1.5K	+$641.71	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
LI Lilybaeum	Liverpool FCavg 34.4¢	$430.88	$539.08	+$108.19	65% 12547-6672 (19219)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 74.5¢	$724.44	$438.4	-$286.04	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
└ Brighton & Hove Albion FC leg	Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 74.5¢	$641.44	$284.3	-$357.14
└ Liverpool FC leg	Liverpool FCavg 36.1¢	$83	$154.1	+$71.1
0X 0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004CTR	Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 74¢	$417.73	$321.77	-$95.97	57% 125-95 (220)
noosh3CTR	Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 76¢	$299.99	$224.99	-$75	52% 190-176 (366)
AN Anon455	Liverpool FCavg 39.3¢	$156.57	$171.39	+$14.81	56% 2027-1581 (3608)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 75.3¢	$95.81	$92.91	-$2.9	54% 13815-11594 (25409)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 74¢	$100	$77.03	-$22.97	51% 6565-6327 (12892)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 36.9¢	$39.49	$60.99	+$21.5	62% 2596-1611 (4207)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Liverpool FCavg 50.6¢	$37.53	$46.23	+$8.7	50% 8808-8746 (17554)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 75¢	$20.36	$15.47	-$4.89	53% 13578-12019 (25597)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 30¢	$2.09	$2.23	+$0.14	58% 1472-1088 (2560)

GoalLineGhost

Liverpool FC

Invested

$4,788.94

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

impaulCTR

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Invested

$1,019.33

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$741.33

Record

62%

179-110 (289)

RN1

Liverpool FC

Invested

$826.12

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$641.71

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

Lilybaeum

Liverpool FC

Invested

$430.88

Value

$539.08

PnL

+$108.19

Record

65%

12547-6672 (19219)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Invested

$724.44

Value

$438.4

PnL

-$286.04

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

Both legs:

Brighton & Hove Albion FC$641.4474.5¢-$357.14

Liverpool FC$8336.1¢+$71.1

0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004CTR

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Invested

$417.73

Value

$321.77

PnL

-$95.97

Record

57%

125-95 (220)

noosh3CTR

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Invested

$299.99

Value

$224.99

PnL

-$75

Record

52%

190-176 (366)

Anon455

Liverpool FC

Invested

$156.57

Value

$171.39

PnL

+$14.81

Record

56%

2027-1581 (3608)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Invested

$95.81

Value

$92.91

PnL

-$2.9

Record

54%

13815-11594 (25409)

fooooolCTR<$100

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Invested

$100

Value

$77.03

PnL

-$22.97

Record

51%

6565-6327 (12892)

shiifooCTR<$100

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Invested

$39.49

Value

$60.99

PnL

+$21.5

Record

62%

2596-1611 (4207)

SnakeBall<$100

Liverpool FC

Invested

$37.53

Value

$46.23

PnL

+$8.7

Record

50%

8808-8746 (17554)

CannaeCTR<$100

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Invested

$20.36

Value

$15.47

PnL

-$4.89

Record

53%

13578-12019 (25597)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Invested

$2.09

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.14

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

Research grade

NeutralLiverpool FC at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Liverpool FC

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Liverpool FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Liverpool FC) and the top 1000 (7 on Brighton & Hove Albion FC) disagree here.

whaleLiverpool FC 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrBrighton & Hove Albion FC 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedLiverpool FC 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Brighton & Hove Albion FC 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Liverpool FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.