Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-2.5)
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Liverpool FC (33%) · Liverpool FC at 96¢ · $23K held · ends Oct 25
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Neutral
Liverpool FC
3
Liverpool FC 33%
$23.0K
$53.01
Research grade
NeutralLiverpool FC at 96%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0F 0F62 | Liverpool FCavg 95.9¢ | $22.5K | $22.5K | +$29.35 | 53% 1781-1607 (3388) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 4.5¢ | $258.77 | $259.19 | +$0.41 | 50% 8710-8632 (17342) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 4¢ | $186 | $209.25 | +$23.25 | 52% 16123-14661 (30784) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.