Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Liverpool FC (50%) · Liverpool FC at 90¢ · $27K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Liverpool FC
4
Liverpool FC 50%
$27.4K
$2.8K
90¢ → 90¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralLiverpool FC at 90%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
99 999585 | Liverpool FCavg 90¢ | $24.3K | $27.1K | +$2.8K | — 4-0 (4) |
 88MCTR | Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 12¢ | $240 | $200 | -$40 | 42% 676-926 (1602) |
CA Cannae | Liverpool FCavg 86¢ | $149.88 | $156.68 | +$6.8 | 53% 13578-12019 (25597) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 11¢ | $0.6 | $0.55 | -$0.05 | 58% 1472-1088 (2560) |
Invested
$24,304.71
Value
$27.1K
PnL
+$2.8K
Record
—
4-0 (4)
88MCTRInvested
$240
Value
$200
PnL
-$40
Record
42%
676-926 (1602)
Invested
$149.88
Value
$156.68
PnL
+$6.8
Record
53%
13578-12019 (25597)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$0.6
Value
$0.55
PnL
-$0.05
Record
58%
1472-1088 (2560)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.