Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (62%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 38¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$1.3K
-$575.52
57.4¢ → 38¢
-34% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 38%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 62%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Underavg 58.2¢ | $1.1K | $720.75 | -$383.43 | 55% 43540-35826 (79366) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 56.5¢ | $470 | $380 | -$90 | 58% 31667-22925 (54592) |
SL slimjoeCTR | Underavg 56¢ | $315.28 | $213.94 | -$101.34 | 52% 5353-4968 (10321) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $6.73 | $5.82 | -$0.75 | 58% 1472-1088 (2560) |
RN1CTRInvested
$1,104.19
Value
$720.75
PnL
-$383.43
Record
55%
43540-35826 (79366)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$470
Value
$380
PnL
-$90
Record
58%
31667-22925 (54592)
Invested
$315.28
Value
$213.94
PnL
-$101.34
Record
52%
5353-4968 (10321)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.73
Value
$5.82
PnL
-$0.75
Record
58%
1472-1088 (2560)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.