Exact Score: Liverpool FC 3 - 2 Brighton & Hove Albion FC?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 91¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Yes9¢No91¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$19.12

Smart Money Entry

95.1¢ → 91.5¢

-4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,720

Combined PnL-$37.35

Yes2 traders

Total Value$92.28

Total Shares1,587

Combined PnL+$18.23

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 95.2¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$35.46	50% 8808-8746 (17554)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 94.4¢	$405.96	$403.77	-$2.19	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 95.4¢	$104.67	$103.25	-$0.16	58% 31667-22925 (54592)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 95.6¢	$84.85	$83.49	+$0.46	54% 13815-11594 (25409)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.4¢	$58.09	$74.5	+$16.41	61% 4538-2871 (7409)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 94.1¢	$46.95	$43.52	-$3.44	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
└ No leg	Noavg 94.1¢	$23.53	$23.41	-$0.11
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 7.4¢	$23.43	$20.1	-$3.32
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.7¢	$15.96	$17.78	+$1.82	50% 7761-7812 (15573)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,991.41

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$35.46

Record

50%

8808-8746 (17554)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$405.96

Value

$403.77

PnL

-$2.19

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$104.67

Value

$103.25

PnL

-$0.16

Record

58%

31667-22925 (54592)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$84.85

Value

$83.49

PnL

+$0.46

Record

54%

13815-11594 (25409)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.09

Value

$74.5

PnL

+$16.41

Record

61%

4538-2871 (7409)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$46.95

Value

$43.52

PnL

-$3.44

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

Both legs:

Invested

$15.96

Value

$17.78

PnL

+$1.82

Record

50%

7761-7812 (15573)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.