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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$19.12

Smart Money Entry

97.3¢ → 97.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,362

Combined PnL-$9.43

Yes1 trader

Total Value$14.13

Total Shares1,413

Combined PnL-$9.69

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 96.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$4.28	50% 8808-8746 (17554)
RN1	Noavg 98¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$14.44	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 96.8¢	$101.64	$101.96	+$0.32	50% 7761-7812 (15573)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$66.69	$67	+$0.41	54% 13815-11594 (25409)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$23.82	$14.13	-$9.69	68% 31167-14971 (46138)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,945.5

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$4.28

Record

50%

8808-8746 (17554)

RN1

Invested

$1,195.47

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$14.44

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$101.64

Value

$101.96

PnL

+$0.32

Record

50%

7761-7812 (15573)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$66.69

Value

$67

PnL

+$0.41

Record

54%

13815-11594 (25409)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.82

Value

$14.13

PnL

-$9.69

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.