Will Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw?

10 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (53%) · No at 92¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 25

Yes9¢No91¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 53%

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$269.5

Smart Money Entry

83.1¢ → 91.5¢

+10% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 19 top traders (53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares7,589

Combined PnL+$462.87

Yes9 traders

Total Value$815.25

Total Shares7,358

Combined PnL-$193.37

No — 53%Yes — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 75.6¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$217.07	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
oieshfn345	Noavg 88.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$8.09	57% 1457-1081 (2538)
GH ghostorder	Noavg 91.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$8.29	68% 3930-1880 (5810)
0010001000001100	Noavg 89.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$50.03	63% 1142-663 (1805)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Noavg 75.6¢	$851.81	$952.89	+$179.07	53% 1871-1637 (3508)
0X 0x6D6349cfD899b61130cc229ec3F9A320f4408197-1775458226199CTR	Yesavg 26¢	$246.86	$237.72	-$9.14	— 6-7 (13)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 24.2¢	$352.13	$189.5	-$162.63	53% 13578-12019 (25597)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Yesavg 10¢	$100	$130	+$30	51% 980-932 (1912)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 93¢	$115.24	$114.29	-$0.95	53% 12226-10956 (23182)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Yesavg 8.8¢	$131.08	$96.38	-$34.7	65% 12547-6672 (19219)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$89.95	$84.95	-$5	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
AV averagejoetraders<$100	Noavg 76.8¢	$53.9	$61.09	+$10.35	56% 465-363 (828)
DR DreamlawnCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$35.57	$31.89	-$3.68	32% 12-25 (37)
AD adururu<$100	Noavg 80.4¢	$26.43	$28.59	+$3.64	54% 289-246 (535)
OX oxe78sh4w98<$100	Noavg 81¢	$26.62	$28.59	+$3.45	52% 216-198 (414)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 87¢	$26.56	$26.56	+$0.01	55% 4845-4030 (8875)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.9¢	$38.05	$23.62	-$14.43	58% 16138-11779 (27917)
RI RichieRicherCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$12.87	$18.59	+$5.72	53% 558-504 (1062)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.6¢	$2.12	$2.6	+$0.48	58% 1472-1088 (2560)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$2,486.9

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$217.07

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

oieshfn345

Invested

$1,277.86

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$8.09

Record

57%

1457-1081 (2538)

ghostorder

Invested

$1,212.04

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$8.29

Record

68%

3930-1880 (5810)

0010001000001100

Invested

$1,065.68

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$50.03

Record

63%

1142-663 (1805)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Invested

$851.81

Value

$952.89

PnL

+$179.07

Record

53%

1871-1637 (3508)

0x6D6349cfD899b61130cc229ec3F9A320f4408197-1775458226199CTR

Yes

Invested

$246.86

Value

$237.72

PnL

-$9.14

Record

—

6-7 (13)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$352.13

Value

$189.5

PnL

-$162.63

Record

53%

13578-12019 (25597)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Yes

Invested

$100

Value

$130

PnL

+$30

Record

51%

980-932 (1912)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$115.24

Value

$114.29

PnL

-$0.95

Record

53%

12226-10956 (23182)

LilybaeumCTR

Yes

Invested

$131.08

Value

$96.38

PnL

-$34.7

Record

65%

12547-6672 (19219)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.95

Value

$84.95

PnL

-$5

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

averagejoetraders<$100

Invested

$53.9

Value

$61.09

PnL

+$10.35

Record

56%

465-363 (828)

DreamlawnCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.57

Value

$31.89

PnL

-$3.68

Record

32%

12-25 (37)

adururu<$100

Invested

$26.43

Value

$28.59

PnL

+$3.64

Record

54%

289-246 (535)

oxe78sh4w98<$100

Invested

$26.62

Value

$28.59

PnL

+$3.45

Record

52%

216-198 (414)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$26.56

Value

$26.56

PnL

+$0.01

Record

55%

4845-4030 (8875)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.05

Value

$23.62

PnL

-$14.43

Record

58%

16138-11779 (27917)

RichieRicherCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.87

Value

$18.59

PnL

+$5.72

Record

53%

558-504 (1062)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.12

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.48

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 19 top traders (53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.