Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (69%) · Yes at 70¢ · $21K held · ended Oct 25

Yes70¢No30¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 69%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.6K

Combined PnL

-$372.15

Smart Money Entry

64.2¢ → 70¢

+9% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 13 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes70%

No30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$15.7K

Total Shares23,896

Combined PnL+$236.89

No4 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares12,397

Combined PnL-$609.04

Yes — 69%No — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA DaBossHogg	Yesavg 64¢	$8.5K	$8.3K	-$199.22	48% 121-129 (250)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Yesavg 65.3¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$200	51% 979-932 (1911)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 37.1¢	$2.7K	$2.1K	-$628.88	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
RN1	Yesavg 63¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$164.38	55% 43532-35822 (79354)
Abdihakeem	Yesavg 65¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$0	50% 71-70 (141)
NO NordhavenCap	Yesavg 65¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$84.89	58% 1698-1222 (2920)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 35.5¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$0.72	58% 31660-22917 (54577)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Yesavg 64.3¢	$777.02	$778.86	+$1.84	56% 6354-5091 (11445)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 64.3¢	$493.02	$494.86	+$1.84
└ No leg	Noavg 35.5¢	$284	$284	-$0
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 35.3¢	$452.43	$455.32	+$2.89	53% 13578-12019 (25597)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 35.2¢	$282.89	$282.47	-$0.42	54% 13813-11594 (25407)
└ No leg	Noavg 35.2¢	$216.53	$215.52	-$1.01
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 64.4¢	$66.36	$66.95	+$0.59
FO foooool	Yesavg 62.4¢	$275.79	$262.78	-$13.01	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 27.9¢	$237.7	$255.37	+$17.67	50% 8804-8737 (17541)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 65¢	$128.06	$128.06	-$0	65% 1536-822 (2358)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$21.15	$20.97	-$0.19	58% 1463-1078 (2541)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 64.4¢	$17.71	$17.74	+$0.03	53% 1871-1637 (3508)

DaBossHogg

Yes

Invested

$8,500

Value

$8.3K

PnL

-$199.22

Record

48%

121-129 (250)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Yes

Invested

$2,285

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$200

Record

51%

979-932 (1911)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$2,720.75

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$628.88

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$1,626.29

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$164.38

Record

55%

43532-35822 (79354)

Abdihakeem

Yes

Invested

$1,600

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

71-70 (141)

NordhavenCap

Yes

Invested

$1,001.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$84.89

Record

58%

1698-1222 (2920)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,193.05

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$0.72

Record

58%

31660-22917 (54577)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$777.02

Value

$778.86

PnL

+$1.84

Record

56%

6354-5091 (11445)

Both legs:

Yes$493.0264.3¢+$1.84

No$28435.5¢-$0

CannaeCTR

Invested

$452.43

Value

$455.32

PnL

+$2.89

Record

53%

13578-12019 (25597)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$282.89

Value

$282.47

PnL

-$0.42

Record

54%

13813-11594 (25407)

Both legs:

Invested

$275.79

Value

$262.78

PnL

-$13.01

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$237.7

Value

$255.37

PnL

+$17.67

Record

50%

8804-8737 (17541)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$128.06

Value

$128.06

PnL

-$0

Record

65%

1536-822 (2358)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.15

Value

$20.97

PnL

-$0.19

Record

58%

1463-1078 (2541)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.71

Value

$17.74

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

1871-1637 (3508)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 13 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.