Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (63%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Hull City AFC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 38¢ · $55K held · ended Oct 25

Over38¢Under62¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$55.2K

Combined PnL

-$170.28

Smart Money Entry

44.7¢ → 37.5¢

-16% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 38%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$52.5K

Total Shares116,929

Combined PnL-$184

Under3 traders

Total Value$567.88

Total Shares883

Combined PnL+$13.72

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Overavg 44.7¢	$52.1K	$52.0K	-$96.76	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 53.8¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$243.48	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.8¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$474.91
└ Under leg	Underavg 46¢	$645.85	$877.28	+$231.43
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 55.2¢	$515.52	$517.57	+$2.05	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Overavg 54.5¢	$307.66	$273.51	-$34.15	65% 12547-6672 (19219)
LA LaarsYCTR	Overavg 55.1¢	$288.81	$235.71	-$53.1	50% 2984-3011 (5995)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Overavg 57¢	$54.1	$63.42	+$0.63	53% 13578-12019 (25597)
└ Under leg	Underavg 42¢	$29.21	$38.25	+$0.35
└ Over leg	Overavg 57¢	$31.88	$25.17	+$0.28
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 52.5¢	$69.69	$62.93	-$6.75	51% 6565-6327 (12892)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.5¢	$49.87	$42.75	-$7.12
└ Under leg	Underavg 54¢	$19.82	$20.18	+$0.37
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 42¢	$35.3	$46.23	+$10.93	50% 8808-8746 (17554)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 45¢	$3.34	$4.08	+$0.74	58% 1472-1088 (2560)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$52,121.95

Value

$52.0K

PnL

-$96.76

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,216.17

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$243.48

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

Both legs:

Over$1,570.3253.8¢-$474.91

Under$645.8546¢+$231.43

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$515.52

Value

$517.57

PnL

+$2.05

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

LilybaeumCTR

Over

Invested

$307.66

Value

$273.51

PnL

-$34.15

Record

65%

12547-6672 (19219)

LaarsYCTR

Over

Invested

$288.81

Value

$235.71

PnL

-$53.1

Record

50%

2984-3011 (5995)

CannaeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$54.1

Value

$63.42

PnL

+$0.63

Record

53%

13578-12019 (25597)

Both legs:

Invested

$69.69

Value

$62.93

PnL

-$6.75

Record

51%

6565-6327 (12892)

Both legs:

Over$49.8752.5¢-$7.12

Under$19.8254¢+$0.37

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$35.3

Value

$46.23

PnL

+$10.93

Record

50%

8808-8746 (17554)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$3.34

Value

$4.08

PnL

+$0.74

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 38%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.