Hull City AFC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 1.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 74¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
1 arb excluded
$2.6K
$93.3
80.4¢ → 73.5¢
-9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 74%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 80¢ | $778.27 | $766.8 | -$11.48 | 55% 43540-35826 (79366) |
LU LuckyLoo | Overavg 81¢ | $669.06 | $681.45 | +$12.39 | 50% 7761-7812 (15573) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 17.2¢ | $550.84 | $668.05 | +$117.21 | 52% 16287-14836 (31123) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 17.2¢ | $388.34 | $519.09 | +$130.75 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 84¢ | $162.5 | $148.96 | -$13.54 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 20.6¢ | $311.07 | $398.62 | +$87.55 | 68% 31167-14971 (46138) |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 76¢ | $24.89 | $23.25 | -$1.64 | 51% 6565-6327 (12892) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 15¢ | $6.94 | $13.38 | +$6.45 | 50% 8808-8746 (17554) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Overavg 80¢ | $4 | $3.8 | +$0.03 | 53% 13578-12019 (25597) |
RN1Invested
$778.27
Value
$766.8
PnL
-$11.48
Record
55%
43540-35826 (79366)
Invested
$669.06
Value
$681.45
PnL
+$12.39
Record
50%
7761-7812 (15573)
Invested
$550.84
Value
$668.05
PnL
+$117.21
Record
52%
16287-14836 (31123)
Both legs:
Invested
$311.07
Value
$398.62
PnL
+$87.55
Record
68%
31167-14971 (46138)
Invested
$24.89
Value
$23.25
PnL
-$1.64
Record
51%
6565-6327 (12892)
Invested
$6.94
Value
$13.38
PnL
+$6.45
Record
50%
8808-8746 (17554)
Invested
$4
Value
$3.8
PnL
+$0.03
Record
53%
13578-12019 (25597)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.