Hull City AFC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 0.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 91¢ · $119 held · ended Oct 25

Over91¢Under9¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$118.72

Combined PnL

-$2.18

Smart Money Entry

94.8¢ → 91¢

-4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over91%

Under9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$113.59

Total Shares124

Combined PnL-$2.86

Under2 traders

Total Value$5.14

Total Shares57

Combined PnL+$0.68

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR ARocky33<$100	Overavg 95.3¢	$68.35	$65.23	-$3.12	76% 3207-1028 (4235)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 94¢	$48.88	$48.36	+$0.26	54% 13815-11594 (25409)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$2.37	$3.05	+$0.68	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$2.08	$2.08	+$0	51% 6565-6327 (12892)

ARocky33<$100

Over

Invested

$68.35

Value

$65.23

PnL

-$3.12

Record

76%

3207-1028 (4235)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$48.88

Value

$48.36

PnL

+$0.26

Record

54%

13815-11594 (25409)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.37

Value

$3.05

PnL

+$0.68

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.08

Value

$2.08

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

6565-6327 (12892)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.