Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5)
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Hull City AFC (100%) · Hull City AFC at 65¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Hull City AFC
3
Hull City AFC 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
-$18.36
65.8¢ → 65¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralHull City AFC at 65%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Hull City AFCavg 66¢ | $990 | $975 | -$15 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
CA Cannae | Hull City AFCavg 65¢ | $403.66 | $403.36 | -$0.3 | 53% 13553-11995 (25548) |
 HRTrading | Hull City AFCavg 66¢ | $201.96 | $198.9 | -$3.06 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Hull City AFCavg 65¢ | $56.76 | $59.4 | +$0.44 | 54% 13697-11517 (25214) |
| └ Brentford FC leg | Brentford FCavg 32¢ | $28.16 | $30.8 | +$0.44 | |
| └ Hull City AFC leg | Hull City AFCavg 65¢ | $28.6 | $28.6 | +$0 |
VeryLucky888Invested
$990
Value
$975
PnL
-$15
Record
58%
31395-22700 (54095)
Invested
$403.66
Value
$403.36
PnL
-$0.3
Record
53%
13553-11995 (25548)
HRTradingInvested
$201.96
Value
$198.9
PnL
-$3.06
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
Invested
$56.76
Value
$59.4
PnL
+$0.44
Record
54%
13697-11517 (25214)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.