Will Hull City AFC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 69¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25

Yes32¢No68¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$20.22

Smart Money Entry

71.9¢ → 68.5¢

-5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,180

Combined PnL+$31.13

Yes5 traders

Total Value$659.74

Total Shares2,169

Combined PnL-$10.91

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Noavg 72¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$30.96	56% 2027-1581 (3608)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$1.65	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$41.33
└ No leg	Noavg 69¢	$747.61	$790.59	+$42.98
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR	Yesavg 31.4¢	$581.49	$574.17	-$7.32	53% 1871-1637 (3508)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$44.52	$42.93	-$1.59	58% 16138-11779 (27917)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 68¢	$41.23	$41.53	+$0.3	53% 12226-10956 (23182)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$24.94	$23.22	-$1.72	51% 6565-6327 (12892)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 69.3¢	$13.85	$13.7	-$0.15	55% 4845-4030 (8875)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.9¢	$11.67	$11.7	+$0.03	58% 1472-1088 (2560)
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Yesavg 28.1¢	$8.02	$7.71	-$0.31	57% 1457-1081 (2538)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Noavg 67¢	$2.03	$2.05	+$0.02	65% 12547-6672 (19219)

Anon455

Invested

$2,229.3

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$30.96

Record

56%

2027-1581 (3608)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,946.18

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.65

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

Both legs:

Yes$1,198.5728¢-$41.33

No$747.6169¢+$42.98

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR

Yes

Invested

$581.49

Value

$574.17

PnL

-$7.32

Record

53%

1871-1637 (3508)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.52

Value

$42.93

PnL

-$1.59

Record

58%

16138-11779 (27917)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$41.23

Value

$41.53

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

12226-10956 (23182)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.94

Value

$23.22

PnL

-$1.72

Record

51%

6565-6327 (12892)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$13.85

Value

$13.7

PnL

-$0.15

Record

55%

4845-4030 (8875)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.67

Value

$11.7

PnL

+$0.03

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

oieshfn345CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.02

Value

$7.71

PnL

-$0.31

Record

57%

1457-1081 (2538)

Lilybaeum<$100

Invested

$2.03

Value

$2.05

PnL

+$0.02

Record

65%

12547-6672 (19219)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.