Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Hull City AFC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 38¢ · $649 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$649.02
-$227.77
44¢ → 37.5¢
-15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 38%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 46.2¢ | $670.26 | $398.68 | -$271.58 | 68% 31167-14971 (46138) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 32.5¢ | $75.57 | $118.48 | +$42.91 | 50% 8808-8746 (17554) |
FO foooool<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $74.9 | $65.54 | -$9.36 | 51% 6565-6327 (12892) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 42.2¢ | $41.33 | $49.97 | +$8.65 | 53% 13578-12019 (25597) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $9.5 | $11.02 | +$1.52 | 53% 1871-1637 (3508) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 27¢ | $5.21 | $5.31 | +$0.1 | 55% 43540-35826 (79366) |
Invested
$670.26
Value
$398.68
PnL
-$271.58
Record
68%
31167-14971 (46138)
Invested
$75.57
Value
$118.48
PnL
+$42.91
Record
50%
8808-8746 (17554)
Invested
$74.9
Value
$65.54
PnL
-$9.36
Record
51%
6565-6327 (12892)
Invested
$41.33
Value
$49.97
PnL
+$8.65
Record
53%
13578-12019 (25597)
Invested
$9.5
Value
$11.02
PnL
+$1.52
Record
53%
1871-1637 (3508)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$5.21
Value
$5.31
PnL
+$0.1
Record
55%
43540-35826 (79366)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.