Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 80¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25

Over21¢Under79¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$40.68

Smart Money Entry

63.4¢ → 79.5¢

+25% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 80%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over21%

Under80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares8,753

Combined PnL+$65.22

Over2 traders

Total Value$31.51

Total Shares88

Combined PnL-$24.54

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 63¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$67.31	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 64.1¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$2.09	52% 16273-14816 (31089)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 38¢	$94.2	$92.18	-$2.02	54% 13813-11594 (25407)
└ Over leg	Overavg 38¢	$57	$52.5	-$4.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 60¢	$37.2	$39.68	+$2.48
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$24.94	$30.96	+$6.02	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 37¢	$572.92	$0.55	-$30.56	58% 31660-22917 (54577)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$3,739.17

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$67.31

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,300.8

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$2.09

Record

52%

16273-14816 (31089)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$94.2

Value

$92.18

PnL

-$2.02

Record

54%

13813-11594 (25407)

Both legs:

Invested

$24.94

Value

$30.96

PnL

+$6.02

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$572.92

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$30.56

Record

58%

31660-22917 (54577)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 80%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.