Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (58%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 42¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 57%
$3.0K
-$229.19
58.6¢ → 42¢
-28% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 42%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Under 58%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 58.1¢ | $2.0K | $1.8K | -$219.47 | 52% 16273-14816 (31089) |
CA CannaeCTR | Overavg 60.2¢ | $488.07 | $469.91 | -$18.16 | 53% 13578-12019 (25597) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 54.1¢ | $252.9 | $273.46 | +$20.55 | 68% 31121-14960 (46081) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Underavg 47¢ | $235 | $230 | -$5 | 51% 979-932 (1911) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Overavg 60.8¢ | $150.57 | $144.72 | -$6.41 | 54% 13813-11594 (25407) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $75.44 | $73.68 | -$1.75 | 55% 43532-35822 (79354) |
MO mooseborzoiiCTR<$100 | Overavg 57¢ | $59.61 | $60.66 | +$1.05 | 50% 1012-1005 (2017) |
Invested
$1,972.12
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$219.47
Record
52%
16273-14816 (31089)
Invested
$488.07
Value
$469.91
PnL
-$18.16
Record
53%
13578-12019 (25597)
Invested
$252.9
Value
$273.46
PnL
+$20.55
Record
68%
31121-14960 (46081)
Invested
$235
Value
$230
PnL
-$5
Record
51%
979-932 (1911)
Invested
$150.57
Value
$144.72
PnL
-$6.41
Record
54%
13813-11594 (25407)
RN1<$100Invested
$75.44
Value
$73.68
PnL
-$1.75
Record
55%
43532-35822 (79354)
Invested
$59.61
Value
$60.66
PnL
+$1.05
Record
50%
1012-1005 (2017)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.