Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 100¢ · $24K held · ended Oct 25

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.7K

Combined PnL

-$982.63

Smart Money Entry

74.8¢ → 100¢

+34% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$11.3K

Total Shares13,050

Combined PnL+$63.67

Under5 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares13,344

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 44.3¢	$10.3K	$8.7K	$-1.6K	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
└ Over leg	Overavg 63.3¢	$4.9K	$6.1K	+$1.2K
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.3¢	$5.4K	$2.6K	$-2.8K
RN1	Overavg 62.7¢	$6.9K	$7.0K	+$69.77	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
ZX zxc368	Overavg 99.9¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$2	99% 9010-127 (9137)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 29.6¢	$2.8K	$2.3K	-$484.48	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 51¢	$1.3K	$771.6	-$539.32	50% 7761-7812 (15573)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 54.5¢	$545	$535	-$10	51% 980-932 (1912)
HRTrading	Overavg 98.3¢	$142.39	$142.32	-$0.07	58% 1472-1088 (2560)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 99¢	$99	$93.5	-$5.5	59% 13928-9661 (23589)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 81.8¢	$54.23	$51.8	-$2.43	54% 13815-11594 (25409)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$67.62	$37.59	-$30.04	51% 6565-6327 (12892)
MI MinevaJCTR	Underavg 20¢	$166.54	$11.31	+$17.54	57% 881-656 (1537)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Overavg 47¢	$9.53	$9.43	-$0.1	92% 2318-198 (2516)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$10,318.55

Value

$8.7K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

Both legs:

Over$4,881.8963.3¢+$1.2K

Under$5,436.6744.3¢$-2.8K

RN1

Over

Invested

$6,947.57

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$69.77

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

zxc368

Over

Invested

$3,996

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$2

Record

99%

9010-127 (9137)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$2,803.38

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$484.48

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$1,310.92

Value

$771.6

PnL

-$539.32

Record

50%

7761-7812 (15573)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$545

Value

$535

PnL

-$10

Record

51%

980-932 (1912)

HRTrading

Over

Invested

$142.39

Value

$142.32

PnL

-$0.07

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$99

Value

$93.5

PnL

-$5.5

Record

59%

13928-9661 (23589)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$54.23

Value

$51.8

PnL

-$2.43

Record

54%

13815-11594 (25409)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$67.62

Value

$37.59

PnL

-$30.04

Record

51%

6565-6327 (12892)

MinevaJCTR

Under

Invested

$166.54

Value

$11.31

PnL

+$17.54

Record

57%

881-656 (1537)

thatsabing0<$100

Over

Invested

$9.53

Value

$9.43

PnL

-$0.1

Record

92%

2318-198 (2516)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.