Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (78%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 0.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 22¢ · $208 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Under
3
Under 67%
$207.98
$2.58
21.7¢ → 22¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Underavg 22¢ | $179.47 | $179.47 | -$0 | 55% 43593-35871 (79464) |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 78¢ | $24.96 | $24.96 | +$0 | 51% 6573-6335 (12908) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 6¢ | $0.97 | $3.55 | +$2.58 | 57% 1491-1104 (2595) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.