Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Crystal Palace FC, while the market favors Newcastle United FC (67%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Crystal Palace FC (40%) · Crystal Palace FC at 34¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Crystal Palace FC
5
Crystal Palace FC 40%
1 arb excluded
$6.3K
$-2.6K
72.7¢ → 33.5¢
-54% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralCrystal Palace FC at 34%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Newcastle United FC 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Crystal Palace FCavg 84.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.3K | +$315.75 | 52% 16287-14836 (31123) |
| └ Crystal Palace FC leg | Crystal Palace FCavg 84.9¢ | $2.6K | $2.3K | -$339.24 | |
| └ Newcastle United FC leg | Newcastle United FCavg 9¢ | $345.48 | $1.0K | +$655 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Crystal Palace FCavg 72.7¢ | $5.0K | $2.4K | $-2.6K | 68% 31167-14971 (46138) |
 AgricultureSecretary | Newcastle United FCavg 17¢ | $405 | $390 | -$15 | 83% 3612-744 (4356) |
MY myxiCTR | Crystal Palace FCavg 73¢ | $251.85 | $248.4 | -$3.45 | 67% 265-128 (393) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Newcastle United FCavg 9¢ | $2.16 | $3.6 | +$1.44 | 58% 1472-1088 (2560) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Newcastle United FCavg 20¢ | $0.81 | $0.81 | +$0 | 53% 13578-12019 (25597) |
Invested
$2,985.47
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$315.75
Record
52%
16287-14836 (31123)
Both legs:
Invested
$4,999.67
Value
$2.4K
PnL
$-2.6K
Record
68%
31167-14971 (46138)
AgricultureSecretaryInvested
$405
Value
$390
PnL
-$15
Record
83%
3612-744 (4356)
Invested
$251.85
Value
$248.4
PnL
-$3.45
Record
67%
265-128 (393)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.16
Value
$3.6
PnL
+$1.44
Record
58%
1472-1088 (2560)
Invested
$0.81
Value
$0.81
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
13578-12019 (25597)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.