Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-10-25?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 60¢ · $570 held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$569.54
-$15.21
60.3¢ → 59.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 59¢ | $232.46 | $230.49 | -$1.97 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 62¢ | $274.95 | $217.66 | -$15.16 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
 cassandra.torchlightCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $50 | $50.61 | +$0.61 | 51% 231-226 (457) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $44.61 | $44.99 | +$0.38 | 53% 13553-11995 (25548) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $24.86 | $25.79 | +$0.93 | 54% 13697-11517 (25214) |
Invested
$232.46
Value
$230.49
PnL
-$1.97
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
VeryLucky888Invested
$274.95
Value
$217.66
PnL
-$15.16
Record
58%
31395-22700 (54095)
cassandra.torchlightCTR<$100Invested
$50
Value
$50.61
PnL
+$0.61
Record
51%
231-226 (457)
Invested
$44.61
Value
$44.99
PnL
+$0.38
Record
53%
13553-11995 (25548)
Invested
$24.86
Value
$25.79
PnL
+$0.93
Record
54%
13697-11517 (25214)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.